Mar
30

Is Sacking a Manager really that bad?

Every season a manager gets sacked and the press run with a very familiar line “his sacking was unfair” or “poor decision by the club’s board to sack [manager x].” However is sacking your manager really a bad thing? Using data from only the past 3 seasons (excluding this one since it is too early) I analyze (i.e. let graphs do my analysis for me) their points per game ratio and if sticking with the original manager would have affected their season.

Firstly the managerial sackings I considered and didn’t:

-          Chelsea 2008/9. Sacking Scolari and appointing Hiddink (Considered)

-          Blackburn 2008. Sacking Ince and appointing Allardyce (Considered)

-          Portsmouth 2008. Replacing Redknapp (not a sacking) with Tony Adams (then sacking him). Not considered (That wasn’t done on purpose (appointing Adams) so not suitable)

-          Tottenham 2008. Sacking Ramos and replacing with Redknapp. (Insert triangle joke here) Also not considered due to not enough games and Spurs just being woeful that season.

-          Hull City 2009/10. Sacking Phil Brown and bringing in Iain Dowie (!!!!!). Normally I wouldn’t consider it due to it being less than 10 games but I wanted to see if it effected their relegation. (Considered)

-          Bolton 2009/10. Replacing Ginger Mourinho Gary Megson with Owen Coyle. This was almost always going to be considered.

-          Burnley 2009/10. Brian Laws coming in for Coyle. Not considered as it wasn’t sacking.

-          Manchester City 2009/10. Hughes sacked for former Leicester City player Roberto Mancini. Considered.

-          Portsmouth 2009/10. Sacking Paul Hart for Avram Grant. Considered due to the fact I wanted to see if Grant’s record was actually “miles better” as I read somewhere.

-          Newcastle 2010/11. Hughton out for Alan Pardew. Considered wanted to see if Mike Ashley was right.

-          Blackburn 2010/11. Allardyce sacked in favour of Steve Kean. Considered – long live the Venky boys

-          Liverpool 2010/11. Roy Hodgson sacked for “King” Kenny Dalglish. Considered

-          West Brom 2010/11 Di Matteo sacked for Roy Hodgson. Considered

Two of the above I have gone into more detail and compared their records this season (which I will explain later). Liverpool and Bolton but as I said I will explain this later.

Pre sacking Ratio v Post Sacking ratio

I am not putting in the names of the managers as there were probably care takers involved. My main aim is to see if a sacking had or didn’t have an impact.  So here is the overall graph of the managers above who were considered:

 

Managerial sacking ratios

Is it really that bad?

 

As you can see from the graph above there are only two instances where sacking the manager has proved to be detrimental (Blackburn 2010/11 and Hull City 2009/10), below is the actual figures of the points per game:

  Pre-Sacking Ratio Post sacking ratio
West Brom (2010)

1.04

1.615384615
Liverpool (2010)

1.25

1.833333333
Blackburn (2010)

1.285714

1.041666667
Newcastle (2010)

1.1875

1.227272727
Portsmouth (2009)

0.538462

0.84
Manchester City (2009)

1.705882

1.80952381
Bolton (2009)

1

1.05
Hull City (2009)

0.827586

0.666666667
Chelsea (2008)

1.96

2.615384615
Blackburn (2008)

0.764706

1.333333333

 

Chelsea improved almost by a whole point under Hiddink as opposed to Scolari whilst Coyle’s renaissance wasn’t as good in his first season with only a 0.05 difference to Megson’s.

Did the sackings have an impact on the final positions?

  Pre- Change Post Managerial change

Position if no change

 Final Position
West Brom (2010)

13.52

21

16 or 17

11
Liverpool (2010)

22.5

33

9 or 10

6
Blackburn (2010)

30.85714286

25

9

15
Newcastle (2010)

26.125

27

15

12
Portsmouth (2009)

13.46153846

21

20

20
Manchester City (2009)

35.82352941

38

5

5
Bolton (2009)

20

21

15

14
Hull City (2009)

7.448275862

6

18

19
Chelsea (2008)

25.48

34

3

3
Blackburn (2008)

16.05882353

28

20

15

 

Here the first column is the team, second column is what the final number of points would be if they hadn’t sacked the manager. The third column is the points accrued after the managerial change. The 4th column is what the team’s final position would be if they had stuck with the original manager (here if it ended at 0.5 or close I rounded up and down). The last column was the actual position.

The most stunning differences concern Blackburn (surprise!).  In the 2008/9 season if they had persisted with Paul Ince till the end of the season then, judging by his points per game performance, he would have lead Blackburn to 20th place in the table with a 12 point difference to their actual final position of 15th. Also last season they would have finished in the top 10 with they had not sacked Sam Allardyce.

West Brom would have also been relegated if they hadn’t sacked Roberto Di Matteo. Although it says 16 or 17 on the table above, if they finished 17th their goal difference was almost identical to the team the team that finished 18th (Birmingham).

More interestingly the table shows that two “bigger” clubs, Chelsea and City, gained more points under their new managers but would have ended in the same position. Many things affected this such as, certainly during the 2008/9 season with Arsenal, teams around not doing so well or vice versa teams around them doing spectacularly well.

Bolton & Liverpool: Then and Now

Bolton and Liverpool have intrigued me the most this season with their varying fortunes. So I decided to take a look at Bolton’s games this season to see where they would have been under Megson and the same for Dalglish and Liverpool. Table below:

  Points under old Current points Position with old Current position
Bolton

29

26

16

17
Liverpool

37.5

42

12

7

 

Certainly with Bolton that isn’t much of a difference as Coyle’s current points per game is slightly below Megson when he got sacked (omen?) though I suspect Liverpool fans can be vindicated with the club’s decision to sack Roy Hodgson.

However this doesn’t take into account, obviously, money spent by managers and that relative to position.

 

Overall, you could say in certain circumstances managerial sackings certainly have virtually no impact on final standings but my results do show that in most occasions a managerial change usually results in more points gained per match which can only be a good thing. But these are only results for the past 3 seasons if I were to go into more detail and go further back it would, in fact it should, even itself out, what with the law of averages and all.

In parting I would just like to give my best wishes to Eric Abidal, Fabrice Muamba and Stylian Petrov and their respective families.

Dec
26

Blackburn Rovers

(The stats below are accurate as of 25th December 2011)

As you have seen my article earlier regarding my views on Steve Kean I have decided to investigate further. Below are some graphs comparing when Blackburn Rovers score and concede goals home & away.

Firstly under Sam Allardyce from the beginning of last season up until he got the boot:

OVERALL:

Here you can see that the majority of the goals Blackburn conceded came during the period just after half time and that they conceded the majority of their goals during the second half. Apart from the 30 minute block after half time, Blackburn under Sam Allardyce outscored their opponents in every other time slot.

What you expect an Allardyce team to be is resolute and home and the graph below shows when they score and concede at home only:

Again barring that one goal they conceded during the end of the match (a match which they lost 2-1 to Chelsea) they outscored their opponents in every single 15 minute period.  Under Sam Allardyce they only conceded 6 goals at home whilst scoring 11 themselves, which is (without sounding too cliché) is what you accept from his teams.

Away from home this is what happened:

These results are slightly skewed by the 7-1 defeat at Old Trafford but it does show that, at least, Blackburn end games stronger away from home. Surprisingly enough they also scored the exact same amount of goals away from home as they did at home (more on this later).

Now we compare this to Steve Kean. Allardyce was in charge for 17 games last season and that is the same amount Steve Kean has been in for this season. So I will start again with the overall analysis:

 Compared to Sam Allardyce’s side this season Blackburn Rovers have only out-scored their opponents once during the 15 minute time slots. What this shows, as has been alluded to by Luke Moore of the Football Ramble, is that there is, possibly, a serious lack of concentration and lack of fitness at the club. I say this because the graph above shows me that they have conceded the majority of their goals (47%) just after half time or during the last 15 minutes.

To break this down further I will now just look at Steve Kean at home:

Again the problem is the same. 47% of the goals they concede at home come either just after half time or during the last 15 minutes.

Away (Kean):

Doesn’t look too dissimilar to the 2 graphs above. Above 40% of their goals have come in the aforementioned time periods.

Allardyce v Kean

Under Sam Allardyce after 17 games Blackburn had scored 22 goals (2 less than what they have this season) and had conceded 27 goals (11 less than this season).  On this point I would just like to digress a bit on a quirky bit of symmetry I found. Home and away under Allardyce Blackburn scored 11 (equally). Under Steve Kean they have scored 12 goals home and away. If that isn’t an omen to getting the boot….

Anyway to continue what I noticed with Sam Allardyce’s Blackburn is that they conceded over 50% of their goals either during the first 15 minutes after half time or during the last 15 minutes of the match. I found a similar figure when analysing Steve Kean’s Blackburn this season. Perhaps that is something to do with the mind-set or coaching at the club?

On a final point under Steve Kean Blackburn have conceded 19 goals at home this season, compared to Allardyce whose team conceded a miserly 6. 19 goals conceded at home is only “bettered” by 5 different teams in the top divisions in England. 4 of these teams are currently in the bottom half of league 2 (the other is Bolton).

I will let you decide what happens next….

 

Dec
22

Steve Kean

Below are my views on Steve Kean. I have no affiliation to Blackburn Rovers (i.e. I do not dislike or adore them, this is my best effort to get across my “neutral” point of view).

Steve Kean took over as Blackburn boss just over a year ago and to say it has been a bumpy ride would be an understatement. He was never going to popular from day one replacing Sam Allardyce who kept Blackburn well clear of relegation trouble and was slowly and surely inching them up the table.  Then came Venky’s.  With this came the statement from the Venky’s chairpersons that within a few seasons Blackburn would be in the Champions League and they followed up by saying that they would look to “lease” players in the January window as opposed to buy players. Suffice to say that this was greeted with mass hysteria by fans across the world. However under Allardyce mid-table was a safe bet with the odd chance of getting in the Europa League (more revenue etc.) Then came the 13th of December 2010 and Big Sam got the boot. Step forth Steve Kean.

Firstly, I would like to say that before his current situation Steve Kean was a highly rated coach. It was pointed out to me by a twitter user yesterday (@Fourquadrate) that Steve Kean was actually being considered for the Chelsea assistant manager job under Filipe Scolari (the job ultimately went to Ray Wilkins). Steve Kean is probably a fantastic “coach” but a manager, that is a whole other issue.

I think that in January of this year Steve Kean actually made 2 of the best signings of the window. Formica and Rochina have been very good whenever I have watched Blackburn this season. I thought at the time that Steve Kean will remain till the end of the season and will probably be replaced by a high profile-ish manager. His record was absolutely woeful and Blackburn managed to guarantee safety only on the last day of the season, they were in no imminent danger but would Big Sam have left it *this* late to guarantee safety? Wouldn’t think so. I am no Big Sam fan but to be fair to him he does do a great job of providing stability at a club.

There were clear signs of discontent amongst the Blackburn fans no two ways about it, but Venky’s persisted with him. Perhaps they played Football Manager 2011, where on it Steve Kean leads Blackburn to the Premier League title and then the Champions League title.  Venky’s gave him money to spend during the summer (money re-invested from the Phil Jones transfer, notably something Newcastle haven’t done with the Andy Carroll cash). According to estimates Kean spent £18mn on players during the summer, including: Yakubu (buy of the season),  Vuckevic, Scott Dann etc. These players, along with the likes of Pedersen, Samba, Givet, Hoilett; should be more than enough to keep Blackburn Rovers comfortably away from the relegation zone.  Yet they find themselves bottom at Christmas and staring down the abyss.

Some of the abuse Steve Kean is getting is certainly not fair on him. However when fans are paying week in week out to watch their team unable to defend in simple situations,  losing in the silliest situations (the game versus Sunderland for example); the fans will vent their frustrations.  To defend Steve Kean I feel what has impressed me most about him is the way he has shaped his attack. I personally feel he has got  the most out of Rochina, Hoilett and Yakubu (who is scoring goals for fun) and that has worked well.  Blackburn have only failed to score 3 times this season which is rather impressive when you consider the teams around them are struggling for goals. They have 12 goals away from home this season (only 1 other team in the bottom half of the table has that tally, Bolton) and also a quick calculation shows that Blackburn have scored more goals (home and away) than any other team in the bottom half and more than Liverpool.

In contrast to this Steve Kean has managed Blackburn now for 38 games. In these 38 games he has accrued 32 points, which if we take last season’s table would place Blackburn 21st.  If you aren’t doing your job well (in a decent time frame as well, I doubt many managers would get this much time) you simply have to go. The Blackburn board are clearly waiting for something (perhaps they are religious people?) to happen. Bottom line is I personally believe Steve Kean should walk as Blackburn manager.  As far as replacements go I would suggest, if Venky’s do have the European ambition, going after Gasperini (speaking of managers not getting enough time!) or Garrido (recently sacked from Villarreal). Then there always is Avram Grant…..

I do feel sorry for Kean this has permanently ruined his reputation for pretty much the rest of his career, but I do hope he will find a new job soon. He isn’t a bad coach, not one bit.

Aug
13

Stoked

 

A new season is upon us and we start the season with yet another manager so the media are again speculating the “intrigue” around our new manager.  However the media seem to be sticking to their old rhetoric that A) there are too many “power” players in the Chelsea dressing room (I think we know who they are) and B) the aging squad.  It is like the pundits just copy and paste the stuff they wrote last season.

 

Just touching on the aging squad issue our expected line up (or the one I expect anyway) will be Cech (29), Bosingwa (28), Ivanovic (27) John Terry (30), Ashley Cole (30) John Obi Mikel (24), Frank Lampard (33), Josh McEachran (18), Anelka (32), Drogba (33), and Malouda (31). The average age of that starting XI is 28.6 years old. Now that is a shade on the old side however when you consider there are players like Sturridge, David Luiz, Ramires, Gael Kakuta, Oriol Romeu, Romelu Lukaku and a certain Spanish striker who are all under that average age it makes good reading for the future, but basing just on that number and that starting XI it is hardly an “ancient” squad.   Perhaps 10 years ago yes it would be ancient but with the latest technological developments and rigorous fitness regimes playing week in week out at the age of 35/36 isn’t unheard of.

 

That is a story for another day, looking ahead to the match against Stoke it seems Chelsea will be a bit light upfront. Torres suffered a concussion and is unlikely to play, Sturridge is suspended and the Lukaku deal isn’t going to get cleared in time.  So, as last season I expect a front 3 comprising of Anelka, Drogba and Malouda. Width will be an issue but physicality won’t, Chelsea shouldn’t get outmuscled by Stoke especially if the likes of Ivanovic, Drogba, Alex, Terry and Mikel play. Width has always been a problem since Jose Mourinho took over. He tried to convert Joe Cole into a winger (which was unsuccessful) and possibly the only decent and “proper” winger Chelsea have had since Jesper Gronkjaer left is Arjen Robben.   Chelsea’s most accurate crosser last season was Florent Malouda with 2.1 per game however he only had 4 assists to his name. Malouda was bought in by Jose Mourinho to be that new winger sadly his first two seasons were absolutely shocking though he did improve drastically under Carlo Ancelotti and was Chelsea’s top scorer in the league last season. He lacks the ability to beat another man in my opinion which is important for a proper/traditional winger.  However I have high hopes that Gael Kakuta can take over from Malouda, though it seems he is becoming a more central player. Also Chelsea’s top assister last season was Didier Drogba, who knows hopefully Andre Villas-Boas can get him and Torres gelling I refuse to believe that two world class players cannot play with each other due to technical issues.

 

The main saga involving Chelsea after the appointment of Andre Villas-Boas is the search for the elusive playmaker.  Judging by statistics on the wonderful WhoScored website under the stat “accurate through balls per game” Luka Modric was 17th with only 0.1 per game. Now that can be blamed on his strikers inability to control the ball and there are 4 Chelsea players above him (Drogba, Essien, Malouda and Lampard) whilst the player with the most accurate through balls was Arselona’s Cesc Fabregas (the only player with more than 1 per game). The more interesting stat is the accurate long balls per game where Modric is 5th with 5.6 per game (possibly due to Crouch?)  And interestingly enough Michael Essien is higher than him in that category. Key passes per game Modric is 9th with 2.1, whilst Florent Malouda is number 1 with 3.1 and if you really want to scrutinize Modric, he only had 2 assists last year.  So why do Chelsea need him? Because he has that ability to unlock defences, something that was expected when Yossi Benayoun arrived but sadly injuries got the best of him last season. Signing Modric would be further proof that Chelsea are moving away from the Mourinho style of play whereby the aim was to overpower the opponents. With the signings of Torres, Luiz, Ramires, Benayoun and possibly a crafty playmaker it would suggest Chelsea are trying to shift to a more passing based style of play. This can be seen last season, when Michael Essien had more passes per game than anyone (with 68.9) and Modric was 3rd on that list with 62.5. Do Chelsea need a Modric? Absolutely, statistics only show very brief snapshots of a player. If we were to judge by statistics it would show that Essien was Chelsea’s best player but watching Chelsea play last season I would say he was one of the weakest players.

 

This is all ifs and buts, what is certain is that there is a match on Sunday and it is against Stoke. If I were Andre Villas-Boas I would be thanking the high heavens right now that Rory Delap is unable to play (though however my last blog post does sort of say that his influence is limited).  Stoke are improving year on year and this year it won’t be any different. I expect them to play with both Etherington and Pennant with Jones up top and Walters just behind.  Jon Walters will be the key man for Stoke, last season in the corresponding fixture his goal was magnificent just out muscled David Luiz and scored with a composed finish.  Thankfully they haven’t signed Palacios or Crouch yet or else this would be an even trickier tie for Chelsea. I think that if Drogba has the right mind-set and Lampard can find some of his passing range, Chelsea should be able to win comfortably.  In the past 3 seasons Stoke have only won once on the opening day of the season (at home against Burnley) so further omens that Chelsea should win.

 

Predicted Chelsea squad: Cech, Bosingwa, Ivanovic, Terry, Alex, Mikel, Lampard, McEachran, Anelka, Drogba, Malouda.

 

Predicted score: 2-0 to Chelsea.

 

Feel free to post your thoughts and predictions below!

 

All stats taken from the lovely WhoScored.com I honestly to trawl that website for hours upon hours, do check it out!

Jun
09

The Delap Throw

Here is an article I wrote earlier in the season

“They have one man who is fantastic. I think he shoots the ball better with his hands than his foot.” Luis Filipe Scolari said that about Rory Delap’s magical throw ins. Time and time again we have seen teams succumb to his throw-ins. Arsenal have fallen foul to this method most recently (FA Cup 4th round).

His javelin-esque action makes the ball come in with such pace and trajectory that it is almost as effective as a corner. Stoke make good use of this method, and why should they not? It is effective and will always cause chaos in the opposition box. But how do you stop it? Well there are some methods.

Method A: Try not to clutter the box. By this a team should not have too many defenders around the goal keeper therefore making it easy for the goal keeper to come and collect the ball. As Arsenal and Aston Villa (last season) showed when they packed the box for a Delap throw-in it caused confusion and the goalkeeper did not have space to come and collect the ball. Simple fact: Try to get the goalkeeper to come and collect the ball or atleast punch it away. Side note: You cannot be offside from a throw-in so leaving the box empty is a no-no.

Method B: Treat it like a free kick. In this method just put two (or one) men 10 yards from the throw-in like and let them try to deal with it. This was suggested by a commentator on Sky who said it would work. This can work and be very beneficial as Stoke usually load the box when Delap has a throw-in, and if one of the opposing players stops the ball coming in to the box a possible counter attack is on. Or of course you can use the Dean Windass way (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YL4jcXWstwo&feature=related).

Method C: The Lee Dixon method. A ‘radical’ way, as he describes it, of defending the long throw-in. In this the opposing team should but 4 of their players, they should be good headers of the football, on the goal line. Instead of jumping for the ball they should come out, run at it and head it clear and therefore starting another counter attack.

Method D: The rather simple method. Basically just do not give any throw-ins and you will be fine. Very simple method and very effective. I recommend this one.

 

SOURCES:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/eng_prem/7705772.stm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2008/nov/07/stoke-city-rory-delap-long-throws

 

 

That is how to stop the Delap throw in, but now to examine the real question: is the throw in really that effective?

 

In their first season in the Premier League Stoke scored 38 goals in the Premier League of which 23.68% were a direct result of a Rory Delap throw in. In Stoke’s second season they scored 34 goals and Delap was responsible for 14.7% of them. More interestingly in the latest season Stoke scored an impressive 46 goals and Delap was responsible for only 8.69% of them.  This shows that Stoke’s dependency on Delap has fallen quite a bit season.

 

This could be attributed to a couple of things. Firstly I noticed that Tony Pulis has decided to go with two up front (in a different way), instead of the two “big” men (like Sidibe and Fuller in 08/09), he has opted for one target man and another finisher/all rounder like Jon Walters. Another reason is that when you have two decent wingers who love to get chalk on their boots and deliver decent crosses. Etherington in particular has blossomed since joining Stoke. In comparison if you look at the squad that beat Aston Villa on August 23rd 2008, the midfield 4 was comprised of Olofinjana, Lawrence, Delap and Faye; however if you look at the midfield that started against Bolton in the semi final it was Delap, Whelan, Etherington and Pennant. The quality of the midfield has improved and certainly so has the ability to make chances from open play. The importance of wingers in Stoke’s play was shown in the Cup Final against Manchester City when Etherington was clearly unfit they relied far too much on Delap’s throw ins and set pieces which Manchester City coped with relative ease. Another example where this is highlighted is in the semi final of the FA Cup against Bolton where 1 of the 5 goals Stoke scored came from a set piece and yes it was indeed a Rory Delap throw in.

 

Undoubtedly it is a great asset to have in your side and could be crucial in the last few seconds of a game if you badly need a goal. However it should not be the source of 1/5th of your goals (as was the case in the first season) and I think Tony Pulis has realized that, by slowly developing a good squad he has gotten rid of Stoke’s reliance on Rory Delap and a built a great platform for the club to advance.

 

Overall I think it is a case more of Stoke changing their play style rather than teams finding ways to deal with the Delap throw in. I have seen many occasions this season where a throw in from Delap would cause a problem but wouldn’t directly lead to a goal. I also think that next season we will not be seeing much of Rory Delap for Stoke anyway, I suspect Tony Pulis will add a midfielder (combative or creative). I do think Delap relies on his throw ins a bit too much as well (a brilliant piece from Zonal Marking just exemplifies that).

 

Feel free to leave your comments in the section below, and thank you for taking the time to read.

Jun
04

Chelsea best/worsts

The season is now over and it was a rather disappointing one for a Chelsea fan due to the great start and the double we had last season. However 5th place in January to a 2nd place finish (helped by Arsenal’s collapse) is normally a good thing.

 

Anyway I will just do the best/worsts from the 2010/11 season – Chelsea style.

 

Player of the season: Petr Cech. If it wasn’t for him we would be in a far deeper pit (the game v Fulham where David Luiz gave away a penalty in the last minute and Cech saved it well). He, along with John Terry, has improved a lot from last season and is back to his best providing the calm presence at the back that we missed for some stages in the 2009/10 season. Honorable mentions to Branislav Ivanovic, John Mikel Obi and John Terry.

 

Flop of the season: Fernando Torres right? Wrong. Someone else. When he first joined he was immense. He had a great engine and his long range shooting was perfect. Though he has struggled with injuries, he did play a crucial role last season when we won the double. This season however he seems to have lost his ‘engine’ and his shooting/passing have become woeful. I really do hope it improves next season as he is world class when fit and is absolutely important to our success. Ladies and gentlemen I present Michael ‘Bison’ Essien.

 

Signing of the season: Oh David Luiz you are the love of my life, oh David Luiz you are not the signing of the season. Has to be Ramires. He took time to adapt but since that game against Arsenal (the one at Stamford Bridge) he has just gotten better and better. He is Frank Lampard and Michael Essien all bundled into one tiny frame. I honestly think he can replace Frank Lampard as a box to box midfielder. Ramires’ goal against Manchester City was simply majestic. But I still want curly hair too.

 

Goal of the season: Lampard v Spurs at the Bridge? Haha. Nope it has to be this Drogba effort against Bolton: http://www.soccerclips.net/videos/bolton-0-1-chelsea-drogba2 Enjoy it (shame about the co-commentator but oh well!). There was a free kick against Spurs that was like 40-45 yards out and it hit the cross-bar.

 

Best Moment of the season: Fernando Torres scoring his first goal. You could feel the relief no matter where you were around the world. Hopefully more of the same next season from El Nino.

 

Worst Moment of the season: Ancelotti sacked, losing 2-1 to United (both times), 3-1 to Arsenal… the list is endless however I would go for the 3-0 loss to Sunderland at home. The most unexpected result in a long time and to lose to a brilliant goal by Nedum Onuha as well!? The players seemed shell shocked and I guess you could say that was the start of the slide.

 

Hopes for next season: Guus Hiddink (although I did state in an earlier post Brendan Rodgers and Gus Poyet but those seem unlikely targets). Hopefully some young signings like Lukaku, Pastore and such. Also a winger who can cross! Players need to go though and I think starting with Paulo Ferreira, Hilario, Anelka and Bosingwa. Possibly also Florent Malouda however he does have moments of brilliance  so perhaps one more season for him and Didier Drogba. Kalou I am undecided about to me he is the new Jesper Gronkjaer (consistently inconsistent) though he has just had his best season by far (goal scoring terms) so the beginning of something new? We shall see.

 

Feel free to leave your thoughts below. Have a great summer!

 

 

May
06

The Devil’s Lair

Apparently there is a big match on Sunday. Wolves v West Brom. Relegation 6 pointer! But I am talking about the other game, the one at Old Trafford.

 

Cast your mind back to February and when Chelsea were 15 points behind Manchester United. I thought we were dead and buried as far as the title race was concerned and would be lucky to finish in the top 3. Oh how times have changed. We go to Old Trafford on Sunday with the chance of overhauling Manchester United with a win. Will we win? Probably not. United have the experience and the ability to kill off teams and I think they will do that. However one or two slices of luck and you never know.

 

The purpose of this post is the line up I want Chelsea to play, to have a chance at beating United.  The back four looks fine, no changes needed there. David Luiz will have riled up the United crowd following the 2-1 win at the Bridge earlier in the season.

 

The midfield is where it all goes strange. King Carlo has to right men in the middle of the park, that is where football games are won and lost. My choice would be to stick with Mikel, Lampard and Essien. Lampard and Essien have been poor compared to past seasons but they will need to give performances of their life times if we are to win. John Obi Mikel has to play. There has to be no doubt about this. He has played recently and that has coincided with our recent up turn in fortunes. His ball winning skills are vital as it gives Essien a more freer role to push on and help the attack. Also this season some of his passing has been wonderful, though he can be guilty of trying the Xavi pass too often (as we saw against Spurs). Ramires, I would pick ahead of Lampard – both very similar players (box to box) and Ramires is just so darn energetic. However I just can’t see Lampard being dropped nor can I see a 4 man midfield of R.E.M. + Lampard. That would be taking narrow to an extreme.

 

Upfront I would I suspect Carlo will go for Kalou, Drogba and Malouda. That would be my number one choice ahead of playing Torres/Drogba together and/or Anelka on the wing. I just think this season we don’t have the players to accommodate Fernando Torres but we will next season. I don’t see Kalou, Torres and Malouda as that backfired at Old Traffod in the Quarter Final of the Champions league.  Kalou is having his best season at Chelsea however he is a bit to Jesper Gronkjaer-esque, by this I mean inconsistent. But hey, if he scores at Old Trafford, a la Gronkjaer, I would be over the moon. Also I wouldn’t be too surprised if we see Ramires on the right wing, Carlo will want to use his energy in some shape or form. However I do not expect to see Fernando Torres start, if he does then I will be surprised.

 

My prediction is a 1-1 draw. I just think we will be going all out for the win which will leave us susceptible at the back.

 

What are your predictions/thoughts ahead of the big match? Post them below.

 

 

May
01

Next in line to the throne

Before I start, or you start reading, I want to make it perfectly clear. I do not want Carlo Ancelotti to go. He is a class manager and one of the best in Europe, however over the past few years (even before Roman Abramovich came) we have come to expect this.

 

Over the past few weeks I have seen people from Jose Mourinho(!) to Marco Van Basten mentioned as possible, and likely, candidates. No doubt they are good but they aren’t my choices. I want someone who knows the club and its history. Someone who has worked with the players and helped them develop and has management experience in English football. This all leads to Jose Mourinho doesn’t it? Not quite.

 

Brendan Rodgers has done a brilliant job at Swansea, continuing Paulo Sousa’s good work from last season.  Although he didn’t have a great time at Reading his work at Swansea has been brilliant. 27 matches won out of 51. For those who do not know Rodgers was Chelsea’s youth team manager from 2004-06, then the reserve team manager 2006-08 before he took the Watford job. Swansea play great attractive and winning football, plus he has really helped Fabio Borini develop as a player (one I hope we keep). He knows most of the Chelsea players who are currently playing in the reserves and the first team. At only 38, and with the right stability he could possibly become a great manager at Chelsea.  Hopefully he gets Swansea promoted and it might sway Roman Abramovich.

 

Another one who is a possibility is Gus Poyet. Pretty much the same as Rodgers (but he hasn’t worked as backroom staff at Chelsea!). His work at Brighton has been nothing short of brilliant.  But with him I would just wait to see how he does in the Championship next season, but undoubtedly the man has the ability to become a top class manager.

 

Part of me wouldn’t say no to Mourinho coming back, but I feel we should give the job to someone who has helped the club develop (like Mourinho did but you get my point!) and someone young. I know that the two options I have said are very unlikely but god please don’t let it be Rafael Benitez.

 

Who do you want to see as Chelsea manager? Comments below.

 

Mar
10

Chelsea Starting XI

Drogba and Torres cannot work. People will say “oh Anelka and Drogba didn’t work until Hiddink came in.” But Drogba and Torres are different. By different I mean they are similar. They both play on the line of the last defender looking for through balls and balls over the top. Drogba can be used as a straight swap for Torres, or unless we are in dire straits and need something to happen.

So I have been mulling this past week who should our starting XI be and I came up with this:

GK: Petr Cech: No questions. He has been the reason why we are still challenging for the 3rd spot. Take for example his penalty save at Fulham, if we lost that it would have been a disaster.

RB: Ivanovic. Against sides that we should be taking the game to this might not be the best option. However his ariel presence for corners and his defending means we need him. Not a great attacking threat from open play but..

CB: David Luiz: Luiz makes up for it. He has been a sensational signing and hopefully he doesn’t dwindle like Shevchenko did (2 goals in 3 games!). Loves getting forward so sometimes Brana can tuck in as centre back and Luiz can exploit the right wing.

CB: John Terry: Some say he is past it. I disagree. This season him, Ivanovic and Cech have been our best players by a country mile. He has even started scoring again (Sunderland, Villa, Blackpool) which is a good sign. Perhaps losing the England captaincy was a good thing. Also he is playing with a damaged nerve in his right leg, not bad for player “past it.”

LB: Ashley Cole: The best left back in the world last season. This season he has consistently been giving 5/10 or 6/10 performances. Really needs to pull his socks up. He hasn’t been attacking lately from the back, but is a better option than anything we have currently. He had 3 or 4 goals last season, whilst this season he has none.

RM: Ramires: He plays that ‘shuttler’ role so effectively. He was slow at first but what do you expect from someone who has played for 3 clubs in 3 years? Settled in well and could be the new Frank Lampard (as Tim Vickery suggests). Again he won’t give the width we crave but his energy is a joy to behold.

CM: Frank Lampard: Again someone who has not had the best season (discounting the injuries) but since Mikel/Essien don’t exactly click for me this is the only option. If he does find form (and fitness) then having someone who scores 10-15 goals from midfield wouldn’t be too bad. Not a long term option by any stretch of the imagination but good enough for now.

CM: Michael Essien: Another one who has failed to perform this season, however his passing against Blackpool was terrific and hopefully we will see the Essien of old. His shooting has been atrocious this season though. He gives defensive and attacking options as opposed to Mikel (who I firmly believe will turn into a top quality player) and with Ramires/Lampard I doubt Mikel would fit in this midfield.

LM: Florent Malouda: He started the season so well but has faded (as have most to be honest). I was going to put Kalou in here but if he have a marauding Ashley Cole then Malouda has to play, as I don’t think Kalou offers defensive duties as much as Malouda does.  Also statistics have shown that Malouda has created the most chances this season (or is somewhere in the top 5) so it would be criminal to leave him out.

CAM: Yossi Benayoun: (or Bennynoon if you are one pundit).  He won’t be back till April at the earliest so perhaps Kalou could play here. But I want Benayoun because he has that understanding with Fernando Torres. Plus he can play just in the whole behind Torres and is the only player at Chelsea who can hit those eye of the needle passes. Playing him just behind Torres in that “Gerrard role.”

ST: Fernando Torres: When you pay £50m for a striker you have to play him. He hasn’t scored yet but once he gets his first then it will alleviate that pressure off him and perhaps he can play with a bit more verve. He played the lone role at Liverpool very well, and I believe (as do many) that he prefers playing up front on his own. So having Benayoun just behind him would be liked by Torres.

I thought against Blackpool he was getting no service at all. Some of the Chelsea players seemed reluctant to pass to him. This will work in time. But sadly some people don’t have the time.

Your thoughts?

Dec
30

What needs to happen in January

I have found out that Chelsea still have two player spots open for players (foreign ones). Ideally we need to strengthen in two positions, on the wing and at the back. Alex and JT make a good partnership but the lack of back up is horrifying. As I am writing Ivanovic is out for the next game v Aston Villa. Its a case of either Bruma or Paulo Ferreira playing at centreback and knowing Carlo Ancelotti he will ask the latter to play. He isn’t good in the air, Ferreira, and with Albrighton fizzing in such lovely crosses I do fear for our team. I personally hope Bruma plays, he needs to develop and a game against a Villa squad that are in dire straits could just be the right time for him.

So, the defender that we need is someone who is younger than JT but not as young as Bruma. Someone who can slot right into the squad. Names I’ve heard range from Subotic (Dortmund) to Cahill (Bolton). Personally I’ll have Carvalho back any day! But on a more realistic note we need a defender with some pace, as we have been exposed match after match by pace (Arsenal and Sunderland are two major examples). The beginning of the season our players were fresh and ready, but now they have gone off the boil and I guess the rigors of the season is catching up with them. Gary Cahill wouldn’t be a bad option since he can play in the Champions League and is already adapted to English football. On the other hand Subotic, like most of his Dortmund team mates, has been sensational this season. He is young and strong in the air, reminds me very much of Ricardo Carvalho. I would prefer Subotic should Ancelotti go in and buy someone in January.

On the wing, well we need a winger. Kalou plays there and just isn’t good enough. Anelka plays there but is far too deep, take for example the match against Bolton yesterday he was playing at left back at one point! Need a winger who can cross the ball and is willing to take on defenders instead of cutting inside and passing the ball centrally. Malouda even has been pretty rubbish these past few months, perhaps its tiredness or his mindset. Hard to find a decent winger who isn’t cup tied in the Champions League. Again I’ve gone for two options here: Chung Yong Lee of Bolton or Jesus Navas of Sevilla. Lee has impressed me a lot this season, by far Bolton’s best player so far.  He has bags of ability, but my concern is he has found his level and might not be able to do so well against the better teams. Jesus Navas on the other hand is a player I haven’t seen much of, but from what I hear (which is always a reliable! (sarcasm)) he is a quality player who does what I want, i.e. run at defenders and deliver brilliant crosses. I would take Jesus Navas, he is young and seems quite energetic. Plus he is’t cup tied so woohoo. Marc Albrighton is another decent player, he has played brilliantly for Villa this season – but I don’t think quite Chelsea standard yet.

I know I said Chelsea need to strengthen in two positions, but there is one more where a back up player will not hurt. Up front. Barring Didier Drogba, who has been poor since coming down with malaria, we lack options. Anelka is played on the wing (or at left back, see above) and Kalou can’t hit a cow’s backside with a banjo if his life depended on it.  Kalou works hard for the team but his end product is always lacking. Need someone who can just come of the bench, or replace Drogba, and guarantee you goals. I am struggling to think of a non-CL cup tied player. There is Aguero but he would prove to be way to expensive. Fernando Torres? No thank you. Excellent player but sometimes his attitude gets me, I’ll leave someone else to sort him out. Hulk from Porto is a possibility, or Vagner Love from CSKA Moscow. Both good players but I haven’t seen the best of them in the Champions League. Who would you suggest? We have Borini/Sturridge but Ancelotti doesn’t seem to have faith in either of them, sadly.

Are there any players you can think of that could help Chelsea? Post below. If you mention Kaka I shall strangle you.


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